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cosmos123

0x016761...e78ebf
#10689 overall · top 50.75%
Smart Score
18
Win Rate
50.0%
Total P&L
+$2
Trade Count
51
Sharpe Ratio
0.92
Sortino Ratio
2.39
Max Drawdown
233.3%
ROI
0.7%
Profit Factor
1.05
Kelly Fraction
0.025
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
018.3/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in February?BUY20.1¢126.659Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?SELL56.0¢10.8Mar 5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?SELL16.4¢11.45Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?BUY61.0¢16.393Mar 5
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?BUY35.0¢14.286Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?SELL2.4¢318.18Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?SELL28.0¢52.63Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?BUY2.2¢318.182Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?SELL28.0¢25.2Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?SELL24.0¢30Mar 3
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?SELL19.0¢15.62Mar 3
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?BUY52.4¢11.45Mar 3
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?SELL30.0¢20Mar 3
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?BUY24.0¢15.625Mar 2
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?BUY19.4¢36Mar 1
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?BUY19.0¢52.632Mar 1
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?BUY12.0¢50Mar 1
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?SELL99.8¢10.9Mar 1
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?SELL12.2¢23.8Mar 1
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?BUY55.1¢10.893Feb 28

Analytics Showcase

Full analytics →
Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%10%< 10%16%10–20%13%20–30%32%30–50%29%50–70%70–80%80–90%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing18.3

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.01
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)16.7%
Win Consistency46.7%
Profit Factor0.48
Drawdown Resilience0.38
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.38
Weekly Sharpe est.0.29
Trading Activity51 trades · 23 active days
JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$557d profit15d loss
JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Showcase profile — live & interactive · 52-week window

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